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Entain sits somewhere between the two models. It has significant international scale and a valuable stake in BetMGM, but also more debt and greater exposure to UK taxation, as well as general regulatory turbulance across Europe.
The four analysts arrive at much the same broad conclusion, albeit by different routes.
For Birkin, the share-price decline has gone well beyond the deterioration in earnings expectations. Fantini sees the industry’s great growth phase as largely behind it. Beynon’s focus is on what the market can see today: earnings and cash flow, rather than promises of future sportsbook growth. And for Robinson, the weakness is no longer simply a matter of valuation. It is increasingly showing up in the fundamentals themselves.
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“Prediction markets think they can mess with Texas,” York said. “I hope you prove them wrong.”
In response, DeNault noted that prediction markets regulated on the federal level by the CFTC offer a “safer alternative” than many offshore operators that lack the requisite consumer protections.
“You can go the combative route and ban something that’s federally regulated,” he said. “But what you’ll end up with is a bunch of customers in Texas just going offshore.”
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In a statement, Wynn Resorts said the unions chose to strike “despite our continued efforts” to negotiate a new deal. Workers are calling for wage increases, healthcare and pension benefits and job security protections. The casino will remain operational despite the walkout. Workers had voted to authorise the strike on 20 August.
“We are committed to finding common ground that is fair, financially sustainable and protects jobs for the long term,” Wynn said.
In second-quarter results posted last month, Encore Boston Harbor saw $209 million in revenue for the period, which was a 3% drop year-over-year. A 12% YoY drop in table games win led to a 6% decline in overall casino revenue, although Wynn CEO Craig Billings said the property delivered second-quarter records for both hotel revenue and revenue per available room. Demand in Boston “has remained healthy, with slot handle running slightly ahead of last year”, Billings said.