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It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.
A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.
That creates a stark contrast during peak football season when traditional sportsbooks spend heavily on promotions. Offers ranging from $350 to $365 from major operators make the $25 to $50 promotional matches typically seen on prediction markets appear modest by comparison.
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According to Nederlandse Loterij, illegal operators currently control approximately half of the Dutch online gambling market and account for roughly 95% of online gambling advertisements, frequently masquerading as licensed providers.
The Loterij suggested around 200,000 Dutch citizens already engage with unauthorised platforms.
Earlier this summer, the Dutch Online Gaming Providers (VNLOK) trade body initiated legal action against Meta and lodged a formal complaint with the European Commission, accusing the social media giant of failing to prevent the widespread display of illegal online gambling advertisements targeting Dutch users on Facebook and Instagram.
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As of yet, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) hasn’t approved the aforementioned NHL futures ETFs.
For the right audience, likely professional traders and sophisticated retail investors, the CME futures on FutureSports indexes could amount to “Goldilocks” offerings because the derivatives aren’t standard sports bets nor are they carbon copies of the event contracts traded on prediction markets.
The MLB and NHL futures contracts could be deployed by big-money bettors as hedges on various team exposures over the course of those leagues’ seasons.
